National economists and analysts who keep tabs on the construction and machinery industries are predicting 2014 will be another year of slow, steady growth—one more firm step upward in the climb back to financial vitality. Many experts say that slow, steady progress is a better path to lasting recovery than is rapid growth because reasonably paced progress is more sustainable and reduces the risk of another bust cycle.
As one example, McGraw-Hill’s Dodge Construction Outlook predicts that 2014 will see a 9% overall rise in construction starts, compared to 2013. Looking at the expected dollar value of new projects that will start in 2014, Dodge says single-family housing will be up 26%, multi-family housing up 11%, commercial building up 17%, and institutional building up 2%. Dodge sees only two sectors will slow down in 2014: Public works construction will drop 5%, and electric utility work will drop 33%.
Analyst FMI Consulting, Raleigh, N.C., predicts that construction put in place will reach $977 billion in 2014—that’s 7% growth. FMI foresees commercial construction rising 5%, healthcare construction going up 6%, educational facility construction increasing 4%, and manufacturing facility construction going up 4%, too.
Judging by rumors of many new or improved models of construction equipment that will be introduced at The Rental Show in February and ConExpo in March, manufacturers must share the cautiously optimistic view held by industry analysts.
Buyers and users of lifting equipment also have weighed in on their economic views and plans for the coming year. In an email poll taken of Lift and Access readers this past fall, they revealed some interesting trends in their responses.
Some 69.6% expect their businesses to grow in 2014; 21.2% expect business to stay about the same as in 2013; and only 6% expect business to decline.
About 51% are planning to buy equipment in 2014, while 27.2% plan to rent or lease.
Nearly 67% of respondents plan to use their own employees for maintaining company equipment, but a surprising 30.3% plan to outsource that work.
Almost 58% of respondents plan to do more employee training in 2014. About 39% plan to do roughly the same amount as in 2013. No one plans to train less. About 48% expect that the trainers will be company employees; 9% plan to use outside trainers; and 39% plan to use a combination of the two.
Crane operator certification update
The new year will likely see OSHA extend the date by which nearly every crane with a capacity of 2,000 lbs. or more will need to be run by a certified operator when used in construction.
OSHA’s proposed change to its Cranes and Derricks in Construction rule would push the deadline out three years, from Nov. 10, 2014, to Nov. 10, 2017. To extend the deadline, OSHA must publish the proposed change, then listen to public comments and make a decision.
Jim Maddux, director of OSHA’s Directorate of Construction, has said in public meetings that the proposal to extend the compliance deadline is “very close to being published,” and that he is confident it will be enacted after the required public comment and debate have been completed.
Adding three years to the compliance deadline would give OSHA and members of the industry an opportunity to re-examine and work through the questions and unforeseen complications that have come to light since it took effect in fall 2010.
Sometime in 2014, we will know whether operators will need to be certified this November, or in three years from then.
